JSE, ALSI Swix, JN43 (Updated)

Update 26th Feb:
The Cycle degree correction continues the course.

From: 5th Feb:
Intermediate wave (C) of Primary wave [C] has a very high probability of comprising 5 Minor waves. Presently the 2nd Minor wave tiptoes towards the turn into the third.

For those sitting comfortably long, perhaps tighter stops?

From 23rd Jan:
The turn at Intermediate (B) of Primary [C] adds more weight to the bearish nature of the pattern. The projection is for if leg (B) - [C] will equal (B) - [A] which would be a 28% correction from SC1

LINK: Previous ALSI Swix chart

LINK: Previous ALSI Swix charts Sept 2019

LINK: Previous ALSI Swix chart July 2019

JSE, ALSI Swix, JN43

 

 Update 12th Sept: The target was overshot a tad, due entirely to the hooha surrounding the incredibly poorly handled split of Naspers. 

 

 

Update 5th Sept: There is a 5-3-5 pattern structure expectation within both Intermediate and Primary degrees.

The bounce at 3 is seeing early resistance. In the target search for 4 we have the dotted line indicating the 61.8% retrace of wave 3 of wave (A) of wave [C]. 

Looking at wave (A) of wave [A] the point 4 was also at a retrace of 61.8% of wave 3.

Also the retrace of the distance from SC1 to 3 of point 4 was at 50%. This is also the case for the dotted line target in relation to the distance from [B] to this latest point 3.

The pattern has also generated a pitchfork which can provide some future support & resistance value.

The potential resistance of the pitchfork center line approaches, but the target lies above it.

This is a large pattern which is far from complete. When [C] arrives it should approximate [A] and clock in as the first Cycle degree leg of an ABC pattern. The Cycle degree B-wave will be a bull comprising an ABC at Primary degree. This will be similar to the chart pattern from [A] to now with another [B] leg to go.
Please note that it is not compulsory to agree with the above. If it is too much to bear...

The study of the JN43 index has been found (by myself) to provide answers more readily than the other ALSI related versions. The answers can be used for finding similar on the tradeable JSE ALSI futures.

LINK:  Same chart from 15th August

The purpose of sharing this is to encourage broader interest with the application of the Elliott Wave theory. The standard version of the theory applies.

JSE, ALSI Swix, JN43

There is a 5-3-5 pattern structure expectation within both Intermediate and Primary degrees.

The bounce at 3 is seeing early resistance. In the target search for 4 we have the dotted line indicating the 61.8% retrace of wave 3 of wave (A) of wave [C]. 

Looking at wave (A) of wave [A] the point 4 was also at a retrace of 61.8% of wave 3.

Also the retrace of the distance from SC1 to 3 of point 4 was at 50%. This is also the case for the dotted line target in relation to the distance from [B] to this latest point 3.

The pattern has also generated a pitchfork which can provide some future support & resistance value.

The moving average is for 100.

chart updated 4th Sept
This is a large pattern which is far from complete. When [C] arrives it should approximate [A] and clock in as the first Cycle degree leg of an ABC pattern. The Cycle degree B-wave will be a bull comprising an ABC at Primary degree. This will be similar to the chart pattern from [A] to now with another [B] leg to go.
Please note that it is not compulsory to agree with the above. If it is too much to bear...

The study of the JN43 index has been found (by myself) to provide answers more readily than the other ALSI related versions. The answers can be used for finding similar on the tradeable JSE ALSI futures.

LINK -  Eskom is Doomed

JSE, ALSI Swix, JN43 (hourly)

The channel is distinctive. 

JSE, ALSI (Swix), JN43

This daily chart of the ALSI Swix index sees the here and now at the turn into the 4th wave of the first Intermediate order downleg of the Primary [C] wave. 

There is evident similarity between the Primary [A] and [C] waves.

The first 5-wave down leg of Primary [A] has wave 1 = wave 3 and a similar indication occurs for the corresponding pattern of Primary [C]..

Within this active wave 3 there are 5 legs of which the first and fifth are close to approaching exactly equal and the RSI is very oversold.

JSE, ALSI Swix, JN43

The ALSI Swix is at prospective support. 

JSE, ALSI Swix (JN43)

This daily chart of the ALSI Swix index looks at the Super-cycle 2 wave. Such a wave is an ABC of Cycle-degree waves. So there could be 3 or 5 Primary waves in the legs. 

South Africa is thereby a global leader with the Super-cycle bear trend. 

Starting first does not mean finishing first.

Probable cause is the evolving entrenched corruption impact along with cadre deployment for the looting, BEE for the over-supply of incompetence and the uncompetitive low IQ and work ethic of the general workforce. Proportional representation maintains the political gangsterism element and the Constitution preserves and protects the indigenous tribalism which conflicts with the democratic attempts at governance whilst cementing the majority of the support for the ruling party. Meanwhile the dismal performance and decay of Africa beckons.

Still many, many years to go across the board, no doubt. 

But hey, any local "Financial Advisor" twerp will tell you that you must invest in local equities, even whilst the foreign investment dries up and the debt continues to escalate.

LINK: Previous ALSI Swix chart May 2019

JSE, ALSI (Swix), JN43

This analysis of the daily chart of the ALSI (Swix) Index stays with the bear view and sees some ratios. The RSI and 0.62 Fib ratio of the retrace of the current downleg suggest a bounce can be here. 

JSE, ALSI (Swix), JN43

The JSE, ALSI (Swix) was always going to be the first to fail the bullish trend view. Now that the hard rule of wave 4 cannot enter wave 1 has been transgressed there is a requirement to find an alternative view. So what can we see? 

The obvious choice would be that the 'B' wave of the correction has just completed (denoted (X)) and this is now the 'C'-wave of Primary wave [2]. The form of this correction is probably a double zigzag entering the second ABC or (Y) leg, making this the second wave (A) at present.

Double ZigZag...

Like all of the charts that I post, this pattern analysis employs the standard version of the Elliott Wave Theory and is intended only to demonstrate my own momentary view within my own application of that theory.

JSE, ALSI-Swix, JN43

This analysis of the ALSI-Swix index hourly chart observes the final upward leg of Minor wave 3 has further influenced the divergence whilst improving the clearance above wave 1 for wave 4 to play in. The upper boundary has been elevated accordingly.

JSE, ALSI (Swix), JN43 (Updated)

Update 9th April..

And the bigger picture reveals that there was a target hiding in plain sight...

Previously:

The ALSI Swix index is suggesting that the end of Minor wave 3 is upon us. It can also be the end of the second bear trend correction and the commencement of the fifth and final leg of that Primary degree trend. The dotted line is the top of Minor wave 1 which Minor wave 4 of a standard impulsive pattern should not enter. If it does pass below the top of Minor wave 1 then the entire pattern for Intermediate wave (1) would need to be a leading diagonal in order for a bull trend to exist. The more probable outcome of such an eventuality would be that the bear trend has yet to conclude.

Appendage: 

My daily view of the JSE Top 40 Index, J200... it has the same story as above..

Like all of the charts that I post, this pattern analysis employs the standard version of the Elliott Wave Theory and is intended only to demonstrate my own momentary view within my own application of that theory.

JSE, ALSI (Swix), JN43

This pattern analysis of the hourly chart of the JSE ALSI (Swix) is also heading towards the completion of Minor wave 3. There has been scant clearance above Minor wave 1 for the accommodation of Minor wave 4, which is always required before Minor wave 5 arrives.

I always refer to the ALSI-Swix when pondering the general indices of the JSE. I find it gives less of the hysterics associated with the Top 40 and ALSI.

JSE, ALSI-SWIX, JN43

The market is still keeping its options open. If we assume that the FED has been taught a lesson by the market response to its cavalier attitude, then obviously a bullish take can hold water.

The bullish take sees Minor wave 3 in progress and moving on just above the half way mark of Minor wave 3. The price of Minor wave 4 cannot enter Minor wave 1 space, but an eventual return to this current level is quite possible before Minor wave 5 commences. Probably in sync with the elections. 

The use of the SWIX index gives less of the aberrations caused by offshore listed heavyweights. Elliott theory prefers natural, unadulterated markets with lots of participants and no whales.