JSE, ALSI Top 40 Index, J200

This weekly data chart covers the periods before and after the Cycle top at the end of 2017. The annotation that is given points to a probability of a downturn into the final leg of the Primary [C] wave.

The purpose of sharing this is to encourage broader interest with the application of the Elliott Wave theory. The standard version of the theory applies.

JSE, Top 40 Index, J200

The Top 40 is with a similar wave count to the ALSI Swix. The 100 MA is in downtrend. A Cycle degree correction would complete at [C] which most often is similar to [A]. However, the probability of of this being a Supercycle degree correction exists, in which case [C] would mark the end of the first leg of the correction.

Hang Seng HK50 v JSE Top 40, J200

The Hang Seng index (blue) usually has quite a close correlation with the JSE Top 40 index (red). 

The JSE commenced the bear trend a little time ahead of the Hang Seng, turned into the B wave a little after the Hang Seng and completed the B wave very close to the Hang Seng. 

Now 4 months into the C wave the progress is about one-third of the expected circa 12-month period to the completion of the first part of the first Cycle of this SuperCycle order correction.

JSE, Top 40, J200

The actual Top 40 index differs from the homemade IG ALSI Cash version due to having a regulated relationship with the actual underlying equity prices. 

The break out is expected to go sideways and is also expected to aim for a month-end lower low.

JSE, ALSI, Top 40 Index, J200

This daily chart of the ALSI Top 40 index looks at the Super-cycle 2 wave. Such a wave is an ABC of Cycle-degree waves. So there could be 3 or 5 Primary waves in the legs. So far this is still the A-leg cycle, with two Primary waves completed.

South Africa is thereby a global leader with the Super-cycle bear trend. 

Starting first does not mean finishing first or finishing at all.

Among the choices for probable cause are the evolving entrenched corruption impact along with the cadre deployment for the looting, there is BEE for the interminable, draconian and racist insistence on an over-employment of incompetence whilst the uncompetitive low IQ and work ethic of the general indigenous workforce is amongst the lowest to be found anywhere. Did I mention the already unrepayable debt that is increasing exponentially? Getting more attention is the proudly socialist State that South Africa is, where this is seen alongside the sorrowful history of all similar experiments by the inexperienced. Small bubbles of acknowledgement have popped up that see the downside of proportional representation which is that it maintains the political gangsterism element in the parliament. Similarly, the Constitution preserves and protects the indigenous tribalism which conflicts with the democratic attempts at governance whilst cementing the permanent majority of the unquestioning support for the ruling party. Then we see that the world looks on with open jaws as the Constitution is amended with great self-praising fanfare to enable the State theft of land from productive farming for redistribution to the indigenous and penniless horde. For increasingly too many the only chance of income is to have a child and obtain child support. The population explosion proceeds apace. In the mix are the farm murders which continue to be either ignored or denied. Meanwhile the dismal performance and decay of Africa beckons and Zimbabwe gets back down on its knees as it disintegrates, prompting the remaining few million to join the majority that are already enjoying refugee status in South Africa. Meanwhile, the youth demand free tertiary education for all with the status of many University Degrees already approaching worthless internationally. Then there are the courts which are backlogged with political back-stabbing cases instead of any addressing of the rampant crime, where the murder and serious crime rates continues unabated and the conviction rates remains virtually non-existent. Nonetheless, the prisons are too few. In addition there is a growing observance of the entrenchment of the unproductive consequences of selection bias that has placed many square pegs in round holes for the purpose of either political or ordinary greed and gangsterism. The seeds of the unacknowledged early mistakes of poor choice of person for the job have produced the entrenchment of similar profiles most everywhere. Not forgetting to mention that most all political speeches now ring hollow and the credibility of the entirety of most all national and local government departments and systems finds lower lows. This is largely due to the anticipated weeding out of the corrupt seeing the majority of the more blatant culprits being returned to parliament and thumbing their noses at those who would de-select them, if they could. So we can now add the perception of a toothless President to the mix. South Africa has long been busy losing its ability to help itself and is further burdened by the failed and failing continent that looks toward it for unencumbered, never-ending hand-outs and a permanently open door to the interminable river of hopeless refugees. What have I forgotten?

But you must admire how the people somehow maintain some hope for their future. Admirable, but the odds are stacked, and each day there are more that throw in the towel. 

JSE, Top 40 Index, J200

This daily chart shows an iota or 2 of resistance. Better not suggest more than this for fear of being set upon by a dead parrot.

JSE, Top 40, J200

Minor wave 4 is a little delayed but otherwise as expected..

JSE, Top 40 Index, J200

Using hourly FTSE data there are some overlaps not appearing with the JSE data. Why the difference? I don't have a clue. But the count is made to change by it. For the better I think.

  

Minute wave [i] is seen as a leading diagonal.
Minor wave 3 is seen as still extending.