Wednesday 12 February 2020

JSE, Gold Mining Index, J150, updated


The purpose of sharing this is to encourage broader interest with the application of the Elliott Wave theory. 
The standard version of the theory applies.


Update 20th March:
The Bull View:
The blood mentioned in the previous post was evidently insufficient. All that is needed to dispel the rampant fear is a glimmer of hope for survival. But then the damage report will restore the desire for the surviving safe havens, bringing the completion of Primary [3]. But then the fear will return worse than before and the need for cash will drive Primary [4] almost into Primary [1] before it unexpectedly gives way to an irrefutable onset of the systemic collapse and the ultimate driver of a collapsing US Dollar.
Until Primary [5] completes and the Supercycle correction of the Dow finally bottoms out that is.


Projecting for [3] - the nearest fib ratio of (1) above (4) that will accommodate [4]=[2] is 3.62 at about 5085.
Projecting for [5] - the minimum to accommodate [5]=[1] is at about 5200. The maximum for [5] is infinite and will thereby probably require a new or different method of currency measurement.


From 28th Feb:
Intermediate wave (3) arrived a few hours after the previous update. The sharp progress has delivered -11% so far today and we now have a sufficient retrace for an Intermediate wave (4)A closer look at the abc form finds affirmation of that sentiment. However, the insane sell off must decide for itself just how much blood is enough. Once (4) concludes then a V-shaped bounce up to the Primary [3] is seen due. This correction should be good practice for Primary [4].




From 21st Feb:
Primary wave [1] was deeply retraced by [2] which promised a bigger wave [3]. Of paramount consideration is that Primary [4] may not enter [1] and will need adequate space above [1] even though it will probably have to be a small ratio of [2].
But then wave [3] was premature with its Intermediate waves which were perfect except for leaving all the work of producing a [3] something larger than [1] to the Intermediate (5). But when the perfection is disregarded it becomes evident that wave (4) is a reset corrective (4)' to allow for an extension by replication of the entire first half of (3).  The projection for (3) using the 2.62 Fib ratio of (1) is also supported by having a half way point between (3)' and (4)'. At present there is opportunity for more volatility for the foreseeable future starting with the completion of the ending diagonal Intermediate wave from (4)' to (3).

This projection approximates the typical probable price actions. Time frames can surprise and volatility is a given.




From 12th Feb:
So far 2020 has been correction time for the J150 index. Nothing can interrupt the concentration that is involved here, neither fear nor favour shall distract from the lack of lustre.


Since there is no evidence of human nature here then it can be assumed that the business of money has been taken over by some alien invader species. A task force has been assembled to capture some of them for lab testing to determine how to either combat or control them. There could be progress with this at any moment. But there again it could just be another one of those fake stories.

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