JSE, Gold Mining Index, J150

June 22nd

The chart is seen to indicate the potential for further downside which the alternative count, as previously explored, would support. It can arise from the evaporation of the negative sentiment towards a second wave of Covid-19. I would be happier to get Primary wave [4] into the rear view mirror. There should be similar downside potential with spot gold and the major gold miners and a prospective strengthening of the Rand/USD. 

plantationis semina

June 15th

The markets have moved into rarely, if ever seen territory. But this is just a continuation of the abuse and related malfeasance of the self-legalized modern mafia. Technical analysis is consequently being challenged like never before. 

There is always a need to challenge your own view and to do so persistently. It is natural and easier to adopt a stance and to then defend it by your own bias. You do not become schizo until you lose control. So I try not to lose it or abuse it. 

Wave (4) has the appearance of a normal corrective pattern. Accordingly the present action is seen as wave [ii] which is finding support at the 62% retrace level. Unless the Fed and/or associates go even more berserk that is.

29th May:

A review of the progress of the current Cycle indicates the probability that Primary wave [4] has already completed. An examination of Primary wave [3] reveals that it extended following an unacceptable (fake) attempt to conclude whilst breaking the hard rule that the 4th wave may not enter the 1st wave of the same order. If it were not for this rule we would be misled into assuming that the Cycle was already complete. It is also noted that Primary wave [4] is 0.62 of [2] which is often seen in high momentum developments. Adopting this view places the current move up as Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [5].  This will confirm provided that the future wave (2) does not dip below [4].

It follows from the above that the previous hourly chart (2nd chart below) requires that (4) becomes [4] and that [3] becomes (1) as is now indicated in the first chart below. The re-arrangement of the internal furniture does not change the target.

From earlier same day:

This hourly view of the Gold Mining Index is showing the progress and target of Intermediate wave (5). A small dip is now expected as the fledgling uptrend is partially retraced, the completion of which is expected to be the entry point for the run up to the top of Primary wave [3].  I apply this to the major listings of this index with a 15 minute view. Make sure you are in total agreement and that you know how to trade with safety before acting on this sort of half-educated guesswork.

 The purpose of sharing this is to encourage broader interest with the application of the Elliott Wave theory. 

The standard version of the theory applies.

 My Wave Numbering

tyrannicas introducamus

MSCI Global ETF (Rands)

Update 8th June:

The same weekly chart as before (below) has generated an excuse for an Intermediate 5th wave (visible on a hourly chart) which, if taken seriously, gives a reason for the apparent madness and brings an end to this era of US created, led and sustained market anarchy. The chart was shown to the market's twitter account and was roundly shrugged off. Labeled as technikal schmetnikal. The internals of [3] are playing a different chord which sounds better to me. 

Turnings are seen as still being indicated for XAU/USD, USD/ZAR, J150, GLD, and SPX  although there are sure to be many more. 

From 27th May:

Here is a weekly chart for the Global MSCI ETF in Rands. It appears to have topped out of Cycle V. 

Primary wave [1] is longest and [5] is accordingly the shortest. It appears to be overly elevated like most 5th waves appear. And yet it tentatively awaits some further confirmation of the expected impact of the global lockdown madness or some second wave panic stations and does not want to leave its station without good cause.

On the other hand the hope is that the unprecedented liquidity injections can enable a resurgence of buybacks so as to create the false impressions as usual. More important is that the usual recipients of free cash can buy up the indices and then the economy can go do whatever it wants and zombie scarecrows will rule again.

To be expected after over a decade of the same thing. Most traders have never known anything different. 

USD/ZAR w/update

Update 22nd July:

The Rand wants to be steering towards being weaker but it has totally lost what little control it ever had over its rudder. It is simply being tossed about like a wet lettuce. Interventions by SARB have been unnecessary and are always going to be a futile waste whilst the economy is being trashed every day of the week.

obeditionis ad innocentium supplicia

Article: Lockdown Deaths, Not Covid Deaths

From 26th June:

How much taxpayer debt does it take to manipulate the Rand to this extent? How much insider trading took a free ride as usual? Why do the culprits keep quiet about their planned assaults?

Update 16th June:

The target was hiding in plain view.

mirabilius ficta

From 5th June:

Driven further by the US Dollar weakness the Intermediate wave (4) now provides an improved picture for assuming its completion.

From 27th May:

Taking one higher order whilst holding onto the impulsive pattern sees the progress of Primary wave [3] and the highly probable completion of Intermediate wave (4).  

My Wave Numbering

From 22nd May:

Nothing to see here. Move along and absorb your daily indoctrination like good little guinea pigs.

Remember that doing as you are told without question can be harmful to more people than you can imagine. But if you survive you will be made to test a vaccine that the taxpayer has paid a fortune for.

How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns

Gold charts

From 19th May:

This Rand/USD chart shows that Minor wave 4 has developed a symmetrical triangle. Now it arrives at resistance point -5- where it may bounce or breach. The breach has a target of 17.7 and will be driven by ongoing USD weakness whilst the bounce will be Minor 4 with the target given via the link:   Previous chart post of 24th April

Dead Roots

ALSI Futures

This daily chart for ALSI futures shows the resistance. A bucket of cold water is overdue. The algos will feel a chill in their cloud.  

ALSI Swix, JN43

The bounce arrived at the 1.62 extension but is seemingly reluctant to let some of the hot air out. Should it continue to huff and puff then the next significant resistance is at the 61.8% retrace. Such levitation can be from further Rand weakening. Much is overpriced whilst fear of the unknown got turfed a while back and expectations are floating on cloud 9.

JSE, Anglo American, AGL

This Cycle for resources is a long term bull trend with a Primary wave [1] of  4 years duration and  Primary wave [2] or Intermediate (A) that has (so far) taken only 2 months to retrace [1] by some 60%. Having bounced energetically to a 61.8% retrace of [2] or (A) it appears that the assignment of (B) at the turn is with better probability.

libertatem de pretio

JSE, Naspers, NPN weekly

The chart for NPN with adjusted data is seen here to be in Primary wave [3] of Cycle III  

The recent sharp dip is seen as Primary [2] from which the pace of restoration indicates the power of fear of the unknown when it gets a grip. And now the fearless take their well deserved profit before the next rumor pops.

JSE, Gold Mining Index, J150

Update 7th July:
The J150 index is assessed for arrival at Primary [3]. Minor wave 5 of Intermediate (5) is compared with the 1.618 ratio of Intermediate wave (1).

Previous

From 15th April:

The Gold Mining index has entered Intermediate wave (5) with gusto. It has doubled within the last month. The ragged pattern deconstructs into another ending diagonal. The 3rd movement has taken respite at the 27.2% extension of Minor wave 1. The RSI can accommodate a full 4th wave with ease which advises caution with the natural expectations of a minor blip here. A full 4th wave is expected to emulate wave 2. 

The weekly overview from 21st March reminds that we are looking for the completion of Primary wave [3] which will be followed by Primary wave [4] which must not enter wave [1].

My wave numbering

The purpose of sharing this is to encourage broader interest with the application of the Elliott Wave theory. 

The standard version of the theory applies.

USD/ZAR w/update

Another View - 24th April:

This weekly chart looks at the bigger picture. The extent of the Rand devaluation concurs with the anticipated 3rd wave action. The assignment of Cycles I and II is made. The assignment of Primary waves within Cycle III has issue with lack of alternation between 2nd and 4th along with the 4th entering the 1st. The 4th Primary is thereby taken as a mid-3rd wave transition into extension and is labelled [3]' and [4]'. 

The pitchfork is deployed and finds a target for [3] at 2.62 of the vertical move of Primary [1] from [2] at about a month away. The [3]'-[4]' wave is mid-point of this projected Primary [3]. 

The recent small bounce from the point where Primary [3] arrived at twice the vertical move of Primary [1] is seen as incomplete Minor wave 4 action where a 3rd leg to 17.7 is indicated for equal legs abc and with 18.26 at the 0.618 mark on the c-leg.

Cycle III has a projected target of 23.7 within between 2 to 3 years.

LINK: Doctors speak out about the lock down

ANC Anthem - 25th Anniversary (stolen version)

From 6th April:

This daily chart for the Rand-US Dollar rate presently sees Primary wave [3] in full swing. The projection is an exercise with some common and less common Fib ratios. 

My wave numbering

The purpose of sharing this is to encourage broader interest with the application of the Elliott Wave theory. 

The standard version of the theory applies.